Problem 13 (2016 AIME I) — AIME 2016 · USAMO Guide - Olympiad Mathematics Learning Platform

Problem 13 (2016 AIME I)

AIME 2016

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Understand the scale

Scale 0.5: Easiest math competition problems, often solvable even for early middle school students without experience. 1: Problems strictly for beginners, often at a moderate middle school level. 1.5: Problems for stronger beginner students, on the level of the middling problems in most middle school contests. 2: For motivated beginners, harder questions from the previous categories. 2.5: More advanced beginner problems, hardest questions from previous categories. 3: Early intermediate problems that require more creative thinking. 3.5: Tougher early intermediate problems that consistently stretch into higher-level creative thinking or conceptual knowledge. 4: Intermediate-level problems. 4.5: Upper intermediate problems approaching the upper bound for non-invitational sprint math competitions. 5: More difficult AIME problems or simple proof-based Olympiad-style problems. 6: High-level AIME-styled questions or introductory Olympiad-level questions. 7: Tougher Olympiad-level questions, may require more technical knowledge. 8: High-level Olympiad-level questions. 9: Expert Olympiad-level questions. 9.5: The hardest problems appearing on Olympiads which the strongest students could reasonably solve. 10: Historically notorious problems, generally unsuitable for even very hard competitions because they are exceedingly tedious, long, and difficult.

Problem

Freddy the frog is jumping around the coordinate plane searching for a river, which lies on the horizontal line $y = 24$ . A fence is located at the horizontal line $y = 0$ . On each jump Freddy randomly chooses a direction parallel to one of the coordinate axes and moves one unit in that direction. When he is at a point where $y=0$ , with equal likelihoods he chooses one of three directions where he either jumps parallel to the fence or jumps away from the fence, but he never chooses the direction that would have him cross over the fence to where $y < 0$ . Freddy starts his search at the point $(0, 21)$ and will stop once he reaches a point on the river. Find the expected number of jumps it will take Freddy to reach the river.

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