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Problem 12 (2002 AIME II)

AIME 2002
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Understand the scale
Scale 0.5: Easiest math competition problems, often solvable even for early middle school students without experience. 1: Problems strictly for beginners, often at a moderate middle school level. 1.5: Problems for stronger beginner students, on the level of the middling problems in most middle school contests. 2: For motivated beginners, harder questions from the previous categories. 2.5: More advanced beginner problems, hardest questions from previous categories. 3: Early intermediate problems that require more creative thinking. 3.5: Tougher early intermediate problems that consistently stretch into higher-level creative thinking or conceptual knowledge. 4: Intermediate-level problems. 4.5: Upper intermediate problems approaching the upper bound for non-invitational sprint math competitions. 5: More difficult AIME problems or simple proof-based Olympiad-style problems. 6: High-level AIME-styled questions or introductory Olympiad-level questions. 7: Tougher Olympiad-level questions, may require more technical knowledge. 8: High-level Olympiad-level questions. 9: Expert Olympiad-level questions. 9.5: The hardest problems appearing on Olympiads which the strongest students could reasonably solve. 10: Historically notorious problems, generally unsuitable for even very hard competitions because they are exceedingly tedious, long, and difficult.

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Problem

A basketball player has a constant probability of .4.4 of making any given shot, independent of previous shots. Let ana_n be the ratio of shots made to shots attempted after nn shots. The probability that a10=.4a_{10} = .4 and an≤.4a_n\le.4 for all nn such that 1≤n≤91\le n\le9 is given to be paqbr/(sc)p^aq^br/\left(s^c\right) where pp , qq , rr , and ss are primes, and aa , bb , and cc are positive integers. Find (p+q+r+s)(a+b+c)\left(p+q+r+s\right)\left(a+b+c\right) .

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